What is the mean annual temperature. Average annual long-term temperatures for two periods. Heating of the earth's surface and air temperature

Vol. 147, book. 3

Natural Sciences

UDC 551.584.5

LONG-TERM CHANGES IN AIR TEMPERATURE AND ATMOSPHERIC PRECITATION IN KAZAN

M.A. Vereshchagin, Yu.P. Perevedentsev, E.P. Naumov, K.M. Shantalinsky, F.V. Gogol

annotation

The article analyzes long-term changes in air temperature and precipitation in Kazan and their manifestations in changes in other climate indicators that are of applied importance and have led to certain changes in the urban ecological system.

Interest in the study of urban climate remains consistently high. Much attention paid to the problem of urban climate is determined by a number of circumstances. Among them, first of all, it is necessary to point out the significant changes in the climate of cities that are becoming more and more obvious, depending on their growth. Many studies point to a close relationship climatic conditions of the city on its layout, density and number of storeys of urban development, conditions for the location of industrial zones, etc.

The climate of Kazan in its quasi-stable ("medium") manifestation has been the subject of a detailed analysis of the scientists of the Department of Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Ecology of the Kazan state university. At the same time, in these detailed studies, the issues of long-term (intra-secular) changes in the climate of the city were not touched upon. The present work, being a development of the previous study, partially compensates for this shortcoming. The analysis is based on the results of long-term continuous observations conducted at the meteorological observatory of the Kazan University (hereinafter, abbreviated as Kazan station, university).

The Kazan station, the university is located in the city center (in the courtyard of the main building of the university), among dense urban development, which gives special value to the results of its observations, which make it possible to study the impact of the urban environment on long-term changes in the meteorological regime within the city.

During the 19th - 20th centuries, the climatic conditions of Kazan were constantly changing. These changes should be considered as the result of very complex, non-stationary impacts on the urban climate system of many factors of different physical nature and various processes.

strange scales of their manifestation: global, regional. Among the latter, a group of purely urban factors can be singled out. It includes all those numerous changes in the urban environment that entail adequate changes in the conditions for the formation of its radiation and heat balances, moisture balance and aerodynamic properties. These are historical changes in the area of ​​the urban territory, the density and number of storeys of urban development, industrial production, energy and transport systems of the city, the properties of the building material used and road surfaces, and many others.

Let's try to trace the changes in climatic conditions in the city in the 19th -20th centuries, limiting ourselves to the analysis of only the two most important climate indicators, which are the temperature of the surface air layer and atmospheric precipitation, based on the results of observations at st. Kazan, university.

Long-term changes in the temperature of the surface air layer. The beginning of systematic meteorological observations at Kazan University was laid in 1805, shortly after its discovery. Due to various circumstances, continuous series of annual air temperature values ​​have been preserved only since 1828. Some of them are presented graphically in fig. 1.

Already at the first, most cursory examination of Fig. 1, it can be found that against the background of chaotic, sawtooth interannual fluctuations in air temperature (broken straight lines) over the past 176 years (1828-2003), although an irregular, but at the same time, a clearly pronounced warming trend (trend) took place in Kazan. The foregoing is also well supported by the data in Table. 1.

Average long-term () and extreme (max, t) air temperatures (°С) at st. Kazan, university

Averaging periods Extreme air temperatures

^mm Years ^max Years

Year 3.5 0.7 1862 6.8 1995

January -12.9 -21.9 1848, 1850 -4.6 2001

July 19.9 15.7 1837 24.0 1931

As can be seen from Table. 1, extremely low air temperatures in Kazan were recorded no later than the 1940s-1960s. XIX century. After the harsh winters of 1848, 1850. the average January air temperatures never again reached or fell below ¿mm = -21.9°C. On the contrary, the highest air temperatures (max) in Kazan were observed only in the 20th or at the very beginning of the 21st century. As can be seen, 1995 was marked by a record high value of the mean annual air temperature.

A lot of interesting also contains tab. 2. It follows from its data that Kazan's climate warming manifested itself in all months of the year. At the same time, it is clearly seen that it developed most intensively in winter period

15 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

Rice. Fig. 1. Long-term dynamics of average annual (a), January (b), and July (c) air temperatures (°С) at st. Kazan, University: results of observations (1), linear smoothing (2) and smoothing with a low-pass Potter filter (3) for b >30 years

(December - February). Air temperatures last decade(1988-1997) of these months exceeded the similar average values ​​of the first decade (1828-1837) of the study period by more than 4-5°С. It is also clearly seen that Kazan's climate warming process developed very unevenly, it was often interrupted by periods of relatively weak cooling (see the corresponding data in February-April, November).

Changes in air temperatures (°C) over non-overlapping decades at st. Kazan, university

regarding the decade 1828-1837.

Decades January February March April May June July August September October November December Year

1988-1997 5.25 4.22 2.93 3.39 3.16 3.36 2.15 1.27 2.23 2.02 0.22 4.83 2.92

1978-1987 4.78 2.16 1.54 1.79 3.19 1.40 1.85 1.43 1.95 1.06 0.63 5.18 2.25

1968-1977 1.42 1.19 1.68 3.27 2.74 1.88 2.05 1.91 2.25 0.87 1.50 4.81 2.13

1958-1967 4.16 1.95 0.76 1.75 3.39 1.92 2.65 1.79 1.70 1.25 0.30 4.70 2.19

1948-1957 3.02 -0.04 -0.42 1.34 3.29 1.72 1.31 2.11 2.79 1.41 0.65 4.61 1.98

1938-1947 1.66 0.94 0.50 0.72 1.08 1.25 1.98 2.49 2.70 0.00 0.15 2.85 1.36

1928-1937 3.96 -0.61 0.03 1.40 2.07 1.39 2.82 2.36 2.08 2.18 2.07 2.37 1.84

1918-1927 3.38 0.46 0.55 1.61 2.33 2.79 1.54 1.34 2.49 0.73 0.31 2.76 1.69

1908-1917 3.26 0.43 -0.50 1.11 1.00 1.71 1.80 1.02 1.83 -0.76 1.01 4.70 1.38

1898-1907 2.87 1.84 -0.54 0.99 2.70 1.68 2.18 1.55 0.72 0.47 -0.90 2.41 1.33

1888-1897 0.11 1.20 0.19 0.23 2.84 1.26 2.14 2.02 1.42 1.43 -2.36 0.90 0.95

1878-1887 1.47 1.57 -0.90 -0.48 2.46 0.94 1.74 0.88 1.08 0.12 0.19 4.65 1.14

1868-1877 1.45 -1.01 -0.80 0.00 0.67 1.47 1.67 1.96 0.88 0.86 0.86 1.99 0.83

1858-1867 2.53 -0.07 -0.92 0.53 1.25 1.25 2.40 0.85 1.59 0.36 -0.62 1.35 0.86

1848-1857 0.47 0.71 -0.92 0.05 2.43 1.02 1.86 1.68 1.20 0.39 0.25 2.86 1.00

1838-1847 2.90 0.85 -1.98 -0.97 1.55 1.65 2.45 1.86 1.81 0.49 -0.44 0.92 0.92

1828-1837 -15.54 -12.82 -5.93 3.06 10.69 16.02 17.94 16.02 9.70 3.22 -3.62 -13.33 2.12

The inhabitants of Kazan of the older generation (whose age is now at least 70 years old) began to get used to the abnormally warm winters of recent years, retaining, however, memories of harsh winters his childhood (1930-1940s) and the heyday of labor activity (1960s). For the young generation of Kazan citizens warm winters In recent years, apparently, they are no longer perceived as an anomaly, but rather as a “climatic standard”.

The long-term warming trend of the climate of Kazan, which is discussed here, is best observed by studying the course of smoothed (systematic) components of air temperature changes (Fig. 1), defined in climatology as a trend of its behavior.

The identification of a trend in climatic series is usually achieved by smoothing them and (thus) suppressing short-period fluctuations in them. With regard to long-term (1828-2003) series of air temperature at st. Kazan University, two methods of their smoothing were used: linear and curvilinear (Fig. 1).

With linear smoothing, all its cyclic fluctuations with period lengths b less than or equal to the length of the analyzed series are excluded from the long-term dynamics of air temperature (in our case, b > 176 years). The behavior of the linear trend of air temperature is given by the equation of the straight line

g(t) = at + (1)

where r(t) is the smoothed value of the air temperature at time t (years), a is the slope (trend speed), r0 is the free term equal to the smoothed temperature at time t = 0 (beginning of the period).

A positive value of the coefficient a indicates climate warming, and vice versa, if a< 0. Если параметры тренда а и (0 известны, то несложно оценить величину повышения (если а >0) air temperature for a period of time t

Ar(t) = r(t) - r0 = am, (2)

achieved due to the linear component of the trend.

Important qualitative indicators of a linear trend are its coefficient of determination R2, which shows what part of the total variance u2(r) is reproduced by equation (1), and the reliability of the trend detection from archived data. Below (Table 3) are the results of a linear trend analysis of the air temperature series obtained as a result of its long-term measurements at st. Kazan, university.

Analysis of the table. 3 leads to the following conclusions.

1. The presence of a linear warming trend (a > 0) in the complete series (1828-2003) and in their individual parts is confirmed with a very high reliability ^ > 92.3%.

2. Climate warming in Kazan manifested itself both in the dynamics of winter and summer air temperatures. However, the rate of winter warming was several times faster than the rate of summer warming. The result of a long (1828-2003) climate warming in Kazan was the accumulated increase in the average January

The results of a linear trend analysis of the long-term dynamics of air temperature (AT) at st. Kazan, university

Composition of series of average TVs Parameters of the trend and its qualitative indicators Increase in TV [A/(t)] Over the smoothing interval t

a, °С / 10 years "с, °С К2, % ^, %

t = 176 years (1828-2003)

Annual TV 0.139 2.4 37.3 > 99.9 2.44

January TV 0.247 -15.0 10.0 > 99.9 4.37

July TV 0.054 14.4 1.7 97.3 1.05

t = 63 years (1941-2003)

Annual TV 0.295 3.4 22.0 > 99.9 1.82

January TV 0.696 -13.8 6.0 98.5 4.31

July TV 0.301 19.1 5.7 98.1 1.88

t = 28 years (1976-2003)

Annual TV 0.494 4.0 9.1 96.4 1.33

January TV 1.402 -12.3 4.4 92.3 3.78

July TV 0.936 19.0 9.2 96.5 2.52

air temperatures by almost A/(t = 176) = 4.4°C, the July average by 1°C, and the annual average by 2.4°C (Table 3).

3. Climate warming in Kazan developed unevenly (with acceleration): its highest rates were observed in the last three decades.

A significant disadvantage of the procedure for linear smoothing of air temperature series described above is the complete suppression of all features of the internal structure of the warming process over the entire range of its application. To overcome this shortcoming, the studied temperature series were simultaneously smoothed using a curvilinear (low-frequency) Potter filter (Fig. 1).

The transmission capacity of the Potter filter was adjusted in such a way that only those cyclic temperature fluctuations were almost completely suppressed, the length of the periods (b) of which did not reach 30 years and, therefore, were shorter than the duration of the Brickner cycle. The results of applying the low-pass Potter filter (Fig. 1) make it possible once again to make sure that Kazan's climate warming historically developed very unevenly: long (several decades) periods of rapid air temperature rise (+) alternated with periods of its slight decrease (-). As a result, the warming trend prevailed.

In table. Figure 4 shows the results of a linear trend analysis of periods of long-term unambiguous changes in mean annual air temperatures (detected using the Potter filter) from the second half of the 19th century to the present. as for st. Kazan, University, and for the same values ​​obtained by averaging them over the entire Northern Hemisphere.

Table data. 4 show that climate warming in Kazan developed at a higher rate than (in its average manifestation) in the Northern

Chronology of long-term changes in mean annual air temperatures in Kazan and the Northern Hemisphere and the results of their linear trend analysis

Periods of Long Characteristics of Linear Trends

unambiguous

changes in average a, °С / 10 years R2, % R, %

annual TV (years)

1. Dynamics of average annual TV at st. Kazan, university

1869-1896 (-) -0.045 0.2 17.2

1896-1925 (+) 0.458 19.2 98.9

1925-1941 (-) -0.039 0.03 5.5

1941-2003 (+) 0.295 22.0 99.9

2. Dynamics of average annual TV,

obtained by averaging over the Northern Hemisphere

1878-1917 (-) -0.048 14.2 98.4

1917-1944 (+) 0.190 69.8 > 99.99

1944-1976 (-) -0.065 23.1 99.5

1976-2003 (+) 0.248 74.3 > 99.99

sharias. At the same time, the chronology and duration of long-term unambiguous changes in air temperature differed markedly. The first period of a long rise in air temperature in Kazan began earlier (1896-1925), much earlier (since 1941) the modern wave of a long rise in the average annual air temperature began, which was marked by the achievement of its highest (in the entire history of observations) level (6.8° C) in 1995 (tabKak). It has already been noted above that the indicated warming is the result of a very complex effect on the thermal regime of the city of a large number of variable factors of different origin. In this regard, it may be of some interest to assess the contribution to the overall warming of Kazan's climate of its "urban component", due historical features the growth of the city and the development of its economy.

The results of the study show that in the increase in the average annual air temperature accumulated over 176 years (Kazan station, university), the “urban component” accounts for most of it (58.3% or 2.4 x 0.583 = 1.4°C). The rest of the accumulated warming (about 1°C) is due to the action of natural and global anthropogenic (emissions into the atmosphere of thermodynamically active gas components, aerosol) factors.

The reader, considering the indicators of the accumulated (1828-2003) warming of the city's climate (Table 3), may have a question: how big are they and with what could they be compared? Let's try to answer this question, based on the table. 5.

Table data. 5 indicate a well-known increase in air temperature with a decrease in geographic latitude, and vice versa. It can also be found that the rate of increase in air temperature with decreasing

Average air temperatures (°С) of latitude circles at sea level

Latitude (, July Year

deg. NL

latitudes are different. If in January it is c1 =D^ / D(= = [-7 - (-16)]/10 = 0.9 °C / deg. latitude, then in July they are much less -c2 ~ 0.4 °C / deg. latitude .

If the increase in the average January temperature achieved over 176 years (Table 3) is divided by the zonal average rate of its change in latitude (c1), then we will obtain an estimate of the value of the virtual shift of the city’s position to the south (=D^(r = 176)/c1 =4.4/ 0.9 = 4.9 degrees latitude,

to achieve approximately the same increase in air temperature in January, which happened over the entire period (1828-2003) of its measurements.

Geographic latitude Kazan is close to (= 56 degrees north latitude. Subtracting from it

the resulting value of the climate equivalent of warming (= 4.9 deg.

latitude, we will find another value of latitude ((= 51 degrees N, which is close to

latitude of the city of Saratov), ​​to which the conditional transfer of the city should have been carried out with the invariance of the states of the global climate system and the urban environment.

Calculation of numerical values ​​(characterizing the level of warming achieved over 176 years in the city in July and on average per year, leads to the following (approximate) estimates: 2.5 and 4.0 deg latitude, respectively.

With the warming of the climate in Kazan, there have been noticeable changes in a number of other important indicators of the thermal regime of the city. Higher rates of winter (January) warming (with lower rates in summer (Tables 2, 3) caused a gradual decrease in the annual amplitude of air temperature in the city (Fig. 2) and, as a result, caused a weakening of the continentality of the urban climate .

The average long-term (1828-2003) value of the annual air temperature amplitude at st. Kazan, University is 32.8°C (Table 1). As can be seen from fig. 2, due to the linear component of the trend, the annual amplitude of air temperature over 176 years has decreased by almost 2.4°C. How big is this estimate and what can it be correlated with?

Based on the available cartographic data on the distribution of annual air temperature amplitudes in the European territory of Russia along the latitudinal circle (= 56 degrees of latitude, the accumulated mitigation of climate continentality could be achieved with a virtual transfer of the city’s position to the west by approximately 7-9 degrees of longitude or almost 440-560 km in the same direction, which is slightly more than half the distance between Kazan and Moscow.

oooooooooooooooooools^s^s^slsls^sls^s^o

Rice. Fig. 2. Long-term dynamics of the annual air temperature amplitude (°С) at st. Kazan, University: results of observations (1), linear smoothing (2) and smoothing with a low-pass Potter filter (3) for b > 30 years

Rice. 3. Duration of the frost-free period (days) at st. Kazan, University: actual values ​​(1) and their linear smoothing (2)

Another, no less important indicator of the thermal regime of the city, in whose behavior the observed climate warming also found its reflection, is the duration of the frost-free period. In climatology, the frost-free period is defined as the time interval between the date

Rice. 4. Duration of the heating period (days) at st. Kazan, University: actual values ​​(1) and their linear smoothing (2)

last frost (freeze) in spring and the first date of autumn frost (freeze). The average long-term duration of the frost-free period at st. Kazan, University is 153 days.

As shown in fig. 3, in the long-term dynamics of the duration of the frost-free period at st. Kazan, the university has a well-defined long-term trend of its gradual increase. Over the past 54 years (1950-2003), due to the linear component, it has already increased by 8.5 days.

There can be no doubt that the increase in the duration of the frost-free period had a beneficial effect on the increase in the duration of the growing season of the urban plant community. Due to the lack of long-term data on the duration of the growing season in the city, we unfortunately do not have the opportunity to give here at least one example to support this obvious situation.

With the warming of the climate in Kazan and the subsequent increase in the duration of the frost-free period, there was a natural decrease in the duration of the heating period in the city (Fig. 4). The climatic characteristics of the heating period are widely used in the housing and communal and industrial sectors to develop standards for reserves and fuel consumption. In applied climatology, the duration of the heating period is taken to be the part of the year when the average daily temperature air is kept below +8°С. During this period, in order to maintain normal air temperature inside residential and industrial premises they need to be heated.

The average duration of the heating period at the beginning of the 20th century was (according to the results of observations at Kazan station, university) 208 days.

1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9

>50 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Y 1 "y y \u003d 0.0391 x - 5.6748 R2 \u003d 0.17

Rice. 5. Average temperature of the heating period (°C) at st. Kazan, University: actual values ​​(1) and their linear smoothing (2)

Due to the warming of the city's climate, only in the last 54 years (1950-2003) it decreased by 6 days (Fig. 4).

An important additional indicator of the heating period is its average air temperature. From fig. Figure 5 shows that, together with the shortening of the duration of the heating period over the past 54 years (1950–2003), it increased by 2.1°C.

Thus, the climate warming in Kazan has not only led to corresponding changes in the ecological situation in the city, but also created certain positive prerequisites for saving energy costs in the industrial and, in particular, in the housing and communal areas of the city.

Precipitation. The possibilities of analyzing long-term changes in the precipitation regime (hereinafter abbreviated as precipitation) in the city are very limited, which is explained by a number of reasons.

The site where the precipitation gauges of the meteorological observatory of Kazan University are located has historically always been located in the courtyard of its main building and is therefore closed (to varying degrees) from all directions by multi-storey buildings. Until the autumn of 2004, a lot of tall trees. These circumstances inevitably entailed significant distortions of the wind regime in the inner space of the specified yard, and with it the conditions for measuring precipitation.

The location of the meteorological site inside the yard changed several times, which was also reflected in the violation of the uniformity of the precipitation series according to st. Kazan, university. So, for example, O.A. Drozdov discovered an overestimation of the amount of winter precipitation at the specified station

lodny period XI - III (below)

by blowing snow from the roofs of the nearest buildings in the years when the meteorological site was located closest to them.

A very negative impact on the quality of long-term precipitation series at st. Kazan, the university also provided a general replacement (1961) of rain gauges with precipitation gauges, which was not provided in a methodological sense.

In view of the foregoing, we are forced to confine ourselves to considering only shortened precipitation series (1961–2003), when the instruments used to measure them (precipitation gauge) and the position of the meteorological site inside the university yard remained unchanged.

The most important indicator of the precipitation regime is their amount, determined by the height of the water layer (mm), which could form on a horizontal surface from liquid (rain, drizzle, etc.) and solid (snow, snow pellets, hail, etc.) after they melt ) precipitation in the absence of runoff, seepage and evaporation. The amount of precipitation is usually attributed to a certain time interval of their collection (day, month, season, year).

From fig. 6 it follows that under Art. Kazan, University, annual precipitation amounts are formed with the decisive contribution of precipitation of the warm (April-October) period. According to the results of measurements carried out in 1961–2003, an average of 364.8 mm falls in the warm season, and less (228.6 mm) in the cold season (November–March).

For the long-term dynamics of annual precipitation at st. Kazan University, the most characteristic are two inherent features: a large temporal variability of the moisture regime and the almost complete absence of a linear component of the trend in it (Fig. 6).

The systematic component (trend) in the long-term dynamics of annual precipitation amounts is represented only by low-frequency cyclic fluctuations of their different duration (from 8–10 to 13 years) and amplitude, which follows from the behavior of 5-year moving averages (Fig. 6).

From the second half of the 1980s. 8-year cyclicity dominated in the behavior of this systematic component of the annual precipitation dynamics. After a deep minimum of annual precipitation amounts, which manifested itself in the behavior of the systematic component in 1993, they rapidly increased until 1998, after which a reverse trend was observed. If the indicated (8-year) cyclicity persists, then, starting (approximately) from 2001, one can assume a subsequent increase in annual precipitation totals (ordinates of moving 5-year averages).

The presence of a weakly pronounced linear component of the trend in the long-term dynamics of precipitation is revealed only in the behavior of their semi-annual sums (Fig. 6). In the historical period under consideration (1961-2003), precipitation during the warm period of the year (April-October) tended to increase somewhat. In the behavior of precipitation in the cold period of the year, an opposite trend was observed.

Due to the linear component of the trend, the amount of precipitation in the warm period over the past 43 years has increased by 25 mm, while the amount of precipitation in the cold season has decreased by 13 mm.

Here the question may arise: is there an “urban component” in the indicated systematic components of changes in the precipitation regime and how does it correlate with the natural component? Unfortunately, the authors do not yet have an answer to this question, which will be discussed below.

Urban factors of long-term changes in the precipitation regime include all those changes in the urban environment that entail adequate changes in cloud cover, condensation and precipitation processes over the city and its immediate environs. The most significant among them are, of course, long-term fluctuations in vertical profiles.

0.25 -0.23 -0.21 -0.19 -0.17 -0.15 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.07 0.05

Rice. Fig. 7. Long-term dynamics of relative annual precipitation amplitudes Ah (fractions of a unit) at st. Kazan, University: actual values ​​(1) and their linear smoothing (2)

lei of temperature and humidity in the boundary layer of the atmosphere, the roughness of the urban underlying surface and the pollution of the air basin of the city with hygroscopic substances (condensation nuclei). The influence of large cities on changes in the precipitation regime is analyzed in detail in a number of papers.

The assessment of the contribution of the urban component to long-term changes in the precipitation regime in Kazan is quite realistic. However, for this, in addition to the data on precipitation at st. Kazan, University, it is necessary to involve similar (synchronous) results of their measurements at a network of stations located in the nearest (up to 20-50 km) surroundings of the city. Unfortunately, we do not have this information yet.

The value of the relative annual amplitude of precipitation

Ax \u003d (R ^ - D ^) / R-100% (3)

considered as one of the indicators of climate continentality. In formula (3), Rmax and Rm1P are the largest and smallest (respectively) intra-annual monthly precipitation sums, R is the annual precipitation sum.

The long-term dynamics of annual precipitation amplitudes Ax is shown in Fig. 7.

The average long-term value (Ax) for st. Kazan, University (1961-2003) is about 15%, which corresponds to the conditions of a semi-continental climate. In the long-term dynamics of the amplitudes of precipitation Ah, there is a weakly pronounced but stable trend of their decrease, indicating that the weakening of the continentality of the Kazan climate is most clearly manifested.

which manifested itself in a decrease in the annual amplitudes of air temperature (Fig. 2), was also reflected in the dynamics of the precipitation regime.

1. The climatic conditions of Kazan in the 19th - 20th centuries underwent significant changes, which were the result of very complex, non-stationary effects on the local climate of many different factors, among which a significant role belongs to the effects of a complex of urban factors.

2. Changes in the climatic conditions of the city most clearly manifested themselves in the warming of the climate of Kazan and the mitigation of its continentality. The result of climate warming in Kazan over the past 176 years (1828-2003) was an increase in the average annual air temperature by 2.4°C, while most of this warming (58.3% or 1.4°C) was associated with the growth of the city, the development of its industrial production , energy and transport systems, changes in building technologies, properties of used building materials and other anthropogenic factors.

3. The warming of Kazan's climate and some mitigation of its continental properties led to adequate changes in the ecological situation in the city. At the same time, the duration of the frost-free (vegetation) period increased, the duration of the heating period decreased, with a simultaneous increase in its average temperature. Thus, prerequisites have arisen for more economical use of fuel consumed in the housing and communal and industrial sectors, and for reducing the level of harmful emissions into the atmosphere.

The work was supported by the scientific program "Universities of Russia - Fundamental Research", direction "Geography".

M.A. Vereshagin, Y.P. Perevedentsev, E.P. Naumov, K.M. Shantalinsky, F.V. Gogol. Long-term changes of air temperature and atmospheric precipitation in Kazan.

Long-term changes of air temperature and atmospheric precipitation in Kazan and their displays in the changes of other parameters of the climate which having applied value and has entailed certain changes of city ecological system are analyzed.

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13. Khromov S.P. Meteorology and climatology for geographical faculties. - L.: Gidrometeoizdat, 1983. - 456 p.

14. Shver Ts.A. Atmospheric precipitation on the territory of the USSR. - L.: Gidrometeoizdat, 1976. - 302 p.

15. Ecological and hydrometeorological problems of large cities and industrial zones. Materials intl. scientific conf., 15-17 Oct. 2002 - St. Petersburg: Publishing House of the Russian State Humanitarian University, 2002. - 195 p.

Received 27.10.05

Vereshchagin Mikhail Alekseevich - Candidate of Geographical Sciences, Associate Professor, Department of Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Ecology, Kazan State University.

Perevedentsev Yury Petrovich - Doctor of Geography, Professor, Dean of the Faculty of Geography and Geoecology of Kazan State University.

Email: [email protected]

Naumov Eduard Petrovich - Candidate of Geographical Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Ecology, Kazan State University.

Shantalinsky Konstantin Mikhailovich - Candidate of Geographical Sciences, Associate Professor, Department of Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Ecology, Kazan State University.

Email: [email protected]

Gogol Felix Vitalievich - Assistant of the Department of Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Ecology, Kazan State University.

Based on air temperature data obtained at meteorological stations, the following indicators are displayed thermal regime air:

1. The average temperature of the day.
2. Average daily temperature by month. In Leningrad, the average day temperature in January is -7.5°C, in July 17.5°C. These averages are needed in order to determine how much each day is colder or warmer than the average.
3. The average temperature of each month. So, in Leningrad, the coldest was January 1942 (-18.7 ° C), the most warm january 1925 (-5°C). July was the warmest in 1972 G.(21.5°С), the coldest - in 1956 (15°С). In Moscow, the coldest was January 1893 (-21.6°C), and the warmest in 1925 (-3.3°C). July was the warmest in 1936 (23.7°C).
4. Mean long-term temperature of the month. All average long-term data are derived for a long (at least 35) series of years. The most frequently used data are January and July. The highest long-term monthly temperatures are observed in the Sahara - up to 36.5 ° C in In-Salah and up to 39.0 ° C in the Death Valley. The lowest ones are at Vostok station in Antarctica (-70°C). In Moscow, the temperatures in January are -10.2 ° C, in July 18.1 ° C, in Leningrad, respectively, -7.7 and 17.8 ° C. The coldest in Leningrad is February, its average long-term temperature is -7.9 ° C, in Moscow February is warmer than January - (-) 9.0 ° С.
5. The average temperature of each year. Average annual temperatures are needed to find out whether the climate is warming or cooling over a number of years. For example, in Svalbard from 1910 to 1940, the average annual temperature increased by 2 ° C.
6. Average long-term temperature of the year. The highest average annual temperature was obtained for the Dallol weather station in Ethiopia - 34.4 ° C. In the south of the Sahara, many points have an average annual temperature of 29-30 ° C. The lowest average annual temperature, of course, is in Antarctica; on the Station Plateau, according to data from several years, it is -56.6 ° C. In Moscow, the average long-term temperature of the year is 3.6 ° C, in Leningrad 4.3 ° C.
7. Absolute minimums and maximums of temperature for any period of observation - a day, a month, a year, a number of years. The absolute minimum for all earth's surface was recorded at Vostok station in Antarctica in August 1960 -88.3°C, for the northern hemisphere - in Oymyakon in February 1933 -67.7°C.

IN North America recorded temperature -62.8 ° C (Snag weather station in the Yukon). In Greenland, at Norsay station, the minimum is -66°C. In Moscow, the temperature dropped to -42°C, and in Leningrad, to -41.5°C (in 1940).

It is noteworthy that the coldest regions of the Earth coincide with the magnetic poles. The physical essence of the phenomenon is not yet completely clear. It is assumed that oxygen molecules react to the magnetic field, and the ozone screen transmits thermal radiation.

The highest temperature for the entire Earth was observed in September 1922 in El-Asia in Libya (57.8 ° C). The second heat record of 56.7 ° C was registered in Death Valley; this is the highest temperature in the Western Hemisphere. In third place is the Thar Desert, where the heat reaches 53°C'.

On the territory of the USSR, the absolute maximum of 50 ° C is noted in the south Central Asia. In Moscow the heat reached 37°C, in Leningrad 33°C.

In the sea, the highest water temperature of 35.6 ° C was recorded in the Persian Gulf. Lake water is most heated in the Caspian Sea (up to 37.2 °). In the Tanrsu River, a tributary of the Amu Darya, the water temperature rose to 45.2 ° C.

Temperature fluctuations (amplitudes) can be calculated for any period of time. The most indicative are the daily amplitudes, which characterize the variability of the weather during the day, and the annual ones, which show the difference between the warmest and coldest months of the year.

Lesson Objectives:

• To identify the causes of annual fluctuations in air temperature;
• establish the relationship between the height of the Sun above the horizon and air temperature;
• computer use as technical support information process.

Lesson objectives:

Tutorials:

• development of skills and abilities to identify the causes of changes in the annual course of air temperatures in different parts of the earth;
• plotting in Excel.

Developing:

• the formation of students' skills to compile and analyze temperature charts;
• application of Excel in practice.

Educational:

• fostering interest in native land the ability to work in a team.

Lesson type: Systematization of ZUN and the use of a computer.

Teaching method: Conversation, oral survey, practical work.

Equipment: Physical map of Russia, atlases, personal computers (PCs).

During the classes

I. Organizational moment.

II. Main part.

Teacher: Guys, you know that the higher the Sun above the horizon, the greater the angle of inclination of the rays, so the surface of the Earth heats up more, and from it the air of the atmosphere. Let's look at the picture, analyze it and draw a conclusion.

Student work:

Work in a notebook.

Recording in the form of a diagram. slide 3

Text entry.

Heating of the earth's surface and air temperature.

1. The earth's surface is heated by the Sun, and the air is heated from it.
2. The earth's surface heats up in different ways:
   • depending on the different heights of the Sun above the horizon;
   • depending on the underlying surface.
3. The air above the earth's surface has different temperatures.

Teacher: Guys, we often say that it is hot in summer, especially in July, and cold in January. But in meteorology, in order to determine which month was cold and which was warmer, they calculate from average monthly temperatures. To do this, add up all the average daily temperatures and divide by the number of days of the month.

For example, the sum of average daily temperatures for January was -200°С.

200: 30 days ≈ -6.6°C.

By observing the air temperature throughout the year, meteorologists have found that the highest air temperature is observed in July, and the lowest in January. And we also found out that the highest position of the Sun in June is -61 ° 50 ', and the lowest - in December 14 ° 50 '. In these months, the longest and shortest days are observed - 17 hours 37 minutes and 6 hours 57 minutes. So who is right?

Student responses: The thing is that in July the already warmed surface continues to receive, although less than in June, but still a sufficient amount of heat. So the air continues to heat up. And in January, although the arrival of solar heat is already somewhat increasing, the surface of the Earth is still very cold and the air continues to cool from it.

Determination of the annual air amplitude.

If you find the difference between average temperature the warmest and coldest month of the year, then we will determine the annual amplitude of air temperature fluctuations.

For example, the average temperature in July is +32°С, and in January -17°С.

32 + (-17) = 15 ° C. This will be the annual amplitude.

Determination of the average annual air temperature.

In order to find the average temperature of the year, it is necessary to add up all the average monthly temperatures and divide by 12 months.

For example:

Students' work: 23:12 ≈ +2 ° C - average annual air temperature.

Teacher: You can also determine the long-term t ° of the same month.

Determination of long-term air temperature.

For example: average monthly temperature in July:

• 1996 - 22°С
• 1997 - 23°С
• 1998 - 25°С

Children's work: 22+23+25 = 70:3 ≈ 24°C

Teacher: And now the guys find the city of Sochi and the city of Krasnoyarsk on the physical map of Russia. Determine their geographic coordinates.

Students use atlases to determine the coordinates of cities, one of the students shows cities on the map at the blackboard.

Practical work.

Today on practical work, which you perform on a computer, you have to answer the question: Will the graphs of the course of air temperatures for different cities coincide?

Each of you has a piece of paper on the table, which presents the algorithm for doing the work. A file is stored in the PC with a table ready to be filled in, containing free cells for entering the formulas used in calculating the amplitude and average temperature.

The algorithm for performing practical work:

1. Open the My Documents folder, find the file Prakt. work 6 cells.
2. Enter the air temperatures in Sochi and Krasnoyarsk in the table.
3. Build a graph using the Chart Wizard for the values ​​​​of the range A4: M6 (give the name of the graph and the axes yourself).
4. Zoom in on the plotted graph.
5. Compare (verbally) the results.
6. Save your work as PR1 geo (surname).

III. The final part of the lesson.

1. Do your temperature charts for Sochi and Krasnoyarsk match? Why?
2. Which city has the lowest temperatures? Why?

Conclusion: The greater the angle of incidence sun rays and the closer the city is to the equator, the higher the air temperature (Sochi). The city of Krasnoyarsk is located farther from the equator. Therefore, the angle of incidence of the sun's rays is smaller here and the air temperature readings will be lower.

Homework: item 37. Construct a graph of the course of air temperatures according to your observations of the weather for the month of January.

Literature:

1. Geography 6th grade T.P. Gerasimova N.P. Neklyukov. 2004.
2. Geography lessons 6 cells. O.V. Rylova. 2002.
3. Pourochnye development 6kl. ON THE. Nikitin. 2004.
4. Pourochnye development 6kl. T.P. Gerasimova N.P. Neklyukov. 2004.

Average annual long-term temperatures during this period, at Kotelnikovo station, it fluctuates from 8.3 to 9.1 ̊С, that is, the average annual temperature increased by 0.8 ̊С.

Average monthly long-term temperatures of the hottest month at Kotelnikovo station are from 24 to 24.3 ̊С, of the coldest from minus 7.2 to minus 7.8 ̊С. The duration of the frost-free period averages from 231 to 234 days. The minimum number of frost-free days ranges from 209 to 218, the maximum from 243 to 254 days. The average beginning and end of this period is from March 3 to April 8 and September 3 to October 10. The duration of the cold period with temperatures below 0 ̊С varies from 106-117 to 142-151 days. In spring, there is a rapid increase in temperature. The length of the period with positive temperatures contributes to a long growing season, which makes it possible to plant various crops in the area. Average monthly precipitation is presented in Table 3.2.

Table 3.2

Average monthly precipitation (mm) for the periods (1891-1964 and 1965-1973) .

As can be seen from the table, the average annual long-term precipitation for this period changed from 399 to 366 mm, decreased by 33 mm.

Average monthly long-term relative humidity air is presented in table 3.3

Table 3.3

Average monthly long-term relative humidity for the period (1891-1964 and 1965-1973), in%,.

During the period under review, the average annual air humidity decreased from 70 to 67%. Humidity deficit occurs in the spring and summer months. This is explained by the fact that with the onset of high temperatures, accompanied by dry easterly winds, evaporation increases sharply.

Average long-term humidity deficit (mb) for the period 1965-1975. presented in table 3.4

Table 3.4

Average long-term humidity deficit (mb) for the period 1965-1975. .

The greatest humidity deficit occurs in July-August, the smallest in December-February.

Wind. The open flat character of the area is conducive to development strong winds different direction. According to the weather station in Kotelnikovo, east and southeast winds are dominant throughout the year. In the summer months, they dry up the soil and all living things die; in winter, these winds bring cold air masses and are often accompanied by dust storms, thereby causing great damage. agriculture. There are also winds of the western direction, which bring precipitation in the form of short-term showers and warm moist air in summer, thaws in winter. The average annual wind speed ranges from 2.6 to 5.6 m/s, the average long-term for the period 1965-1975 is 3.6 - 4.8 m / s.

Winter on the territory of the Kotelnikovsky district is mostly with little snow. The first snow falls in November - December, but does not last long. More stable snow cover occurs in January-February. The average dates of snow appearance are from December 25 to 30, descent on March 22 - 27. The average depth of soil freezing reaches 0.8 m. The values ​​of soil freezing at the Kotelnikovo weather station are presented in Table 3.5

Table 3.5

The values ​​of soil freezing for the period 1981 - 1964, cm,.

3.4.2 Modern climate data for the south of the Volgograd region

The extreme south of the Poperechensk village administration has the shortest winter in the region. On average dates from December 2 to March 15. The winter is cold, but with frequent thaws, the Cossacks call them "windows". According to climatology data, the average January temperature is from -6.7˚С to -7˚С; for July the temperature is 25˚С. The sum of temperatures above 10˚С is 3450˚С. The minimum temperature for this area is 35˚С, the maximum is 43.7˚С. The frost-free period is 195 days. The duration of snow cover is on average 70 days. Evaporation is on average from 1000 mm/year to 1100 mm/year. The climate of this area is characterized by dust storms and haze, as well as tornadoes with a column height of up to 25 m and a column width of up to 5 m are not rare. The wind speed can reach 70 m / s in gusts. Especially continentality increases after the failures of cold air masses to this southern region. This territory is covered from northern winds by the Dono-Salsky ridge (maximum height 152 m) and terraces of the Kara-Sal River with southern exposures, so it is warmer here.

On the surveyed territory, precipitation falls on average from 250 to 350 mm with fluctuations over the years. Most of the precipitation falls in late autumn and early winter and in the second half of spring. It's a little wetter here than in x. Transversely, this is due to the fact that the farm is located on the watershed of the Dono-Salskaya ridge and slopes towards the Kara-Sal River. The border between the Kotelnikovsky district of the Volgograd region and the Zavetnesky districts of the Rostov region from the Republic of Kalmykia in these places of the Kara-Sal River passes along the beginning of the slope of the left bank of the Kara-Sala River to the mouth of the Sukhoi Balka, in the middle the watercourse and the right and left banks of the Kara-Sal River 12 km passes on the territory of the Kotelnikovsky district of the Volgograd region. A watershed with a peculiar relief cuts the clouds and therefore precipitation falls in the winter-spring time a little more over the terraces and the valley of the Kara-Sal River than over the rest of the Poperechensk rural administration. This part of the Kotelnikovsky district is located almost 100 km south of the city of Kotelnikovo. . Estimated climatic data for the southernmost point are presented in Table 3.6

Table 3.6

Estimated climatic data for the southernmost point of the Volgograd region.

In 2006, large tornadoes were noted in the Kotelnikovsky and Oktyabrsky districts of the region. Figure 2.3 shows the wind rose for the Poperechensk rural administration, taken from materials developed for the Poperechensk administration by VolgogradNIPIgiprozem LLC in 2008. Wind rose on the territory of the Poperechensk rural administration, see fig. 3.3.

Rice. 3.3. Wind rose for the territory of the Poperechensk rural administration [ 45].

Pollution atmospheric air on the territory of the Peaceful Administration is possible only from vehicles and agricultural machinery. These pollutions are minimal, as traffic is negligible. Background concentrations of pollutants in the atmosphere are calculated according to RD 52.04.186-89 (M., 1991) and the Temporary Recommendations "Background concentrations of harmful (pollutant) substances for cities and towns where there are no regular observations of atmospheric air pollution" (C- Pb., 2009).

Background concentrations are accepted for settlements of less than 10,000 people and are presented in Table 3.7.

Table 3.7

Background concentrations are accepted for settlements of less than 10,000 people.

3.4.2 Characteristics of the climate of the Peaceful Rural Administration

The northernmost territory belongs to the Mirnaya rural administration, it borders on the Voronezh region. The coordinates of the northernmost point of the Volgograd region are 51˚15"58.5"" N.Sh. 42̊ 42"18.9"" E.D.

Climate data for 1946-1956.

The report on the results of a hydrogeological survey at a scale of 1:200000, sheet M-38-UII (1962) of the Volga-Don Territorial Geological Administration of the Main Directorate of Geology and Subsoil Protection under the Council of Ministers of the RSRSR, provides climatic data for the Uryupinsk weather station.

The climate of the described territory is continental and is characterized by little snow, cold winters and hot dry summers.

The area is characterized by the predominance of high air pressures over low ones. In winter, the cold continental air masses of the Siberian anticyclone are held over the region for a long time. In summer, due to the strong heating of air masses, the area of ​​​​high pressure collapses and the Azores anticyclone begins to act, bringing masses of heated air.

Winter is accompanied by sharp cold winds, mainly easterly directions with frequent snowstorms. The snow cover is stable. Spring comes at the end of March, it is characterized by an increase in the number of clear days and a decrease in relative humidity. Summer sets in the first decade of May, for this time droughts are typical. Precipitation is rare and is torrential in nature. Their maximum falls on June-July.

Continental climate causes high temperatures in summer and low in winter.

Data on air temperature are presented in tables 3.8-3.9.

Table 3.8

Average monthly and annual air temperature [ 48]

The absolute minimum and absolute maximum air temperatures according to long-term data are given in Table 3.9.

Table 3.9

The absolute minimum and absolute maximum air temperatures according to long-term data for the middle of the twentieth century [ 48]

In the first and second ten days of April, a period begins with temperatures above 0 ̊С. The duration of the spring period with an average daily temperature from 0 to 10 ̊С is approximately 20-30 days. The number of the hottest days with an average temperature above 20 ̊С is 50-70 days. The value of daily air amplitudes is 11 - 12.5 ̊С. A significant drop in temperature begins in September, and in the first decade of October, the first frosts begin. The average frost-free period is 150-160 days.

Precipitation. In direct connection with the general circulation of air masses and the distance from Atlantic Ocean are the amount of precipitation. And precipitation comes to us from more northern latitudes.

Data on monthly and annual precipitation are presented in Table 3.10.

Table 3.10

Average monthly and annual precipitation, mm (according to long-term data) [ 48]

Precipitation at Uryupinskaya station by years (1946-1955), mm

1946 – 276; 1947 – 447; 1948 – 367; 1951 – 294; 1954 – 349; 1955 – 429.

On average for 6 years 360 mm per year.

Data for a six-year period clearly show the uneven distribution of precipitation over the years

Long-term data show that the greatest amount of precipitation falls during the warm period. The maximum is in June-July. Precipitation in the summer period is torrential in nature. Sometimes 25% of the average annual precipitation falls in a day, while in some years during the warm period there is no precipitation at all for whole months. The unevenness of precipitation is observed not only by seasons, but also by years. Thus, in the dry year of 1949 (according to the data of the Uryupinsk weather station), 124 mm fell, in the wet year of 1915 - 715 mm of precipitation. During the warm period, from April to October, the amount of precipitation is from 225 to 300 mm; number of days with precipitation 7-10, precipitation 5 mm and more 2-4 days per month. During the cold period, 150-190 mm falls, the number of days with precipitation is 12-14. In the cold period of the year, from October to March, fogs are observed. In total, there are 30-45 foggy days in a year.

Air humidity does not have a pronounced daily course. During the cold season, from November to March, relative humidity is above 70%, and in winter months exceeds 80%.

Data on air humidity are presented in tables 3.11 - 3.12.

Table 3.11

Average relative humidity in %

(according to long-term data) [ 48]

In October, there is an increase in daytime relative humidity up to 55 - 61%. Low humidity is observed from May to August, with dry winds the relative humidity drops below 10%. The average absolute air humidity is given in Table 3.12.

Table 3.12

Average absolute air humidity mb (according to long-term data) [ 48]

Absolute humidity increases in summer. It reaches its maximum value in July-August, lowered in January-February to 3 mb. The moisture deficit increases rapidly with the onset of spring. Spring-summer precipitation is not able to restore the loss of moisture from evaporation, resulting in droughts and dry winds. During the warm period, the number of dry days is 55-65, and the number of excessively wet does not exceed 15-20 days. Evaporation by months (according to long-term data) is shown in Table 3.13.

Table 3.13

Evaporation by months (according to long-term data) [ 48 ]

Winds Data on average monthly and annual wind speeds are presented in Table 3.14.

FEDERAL SERVICE FOR HYDROMETEOROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING

(ROSHYDROMET)

REPORT

ABOUT THE FEATURES OF THE CLIMATE IN THE TERRITORY

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

FOR 2006.

Moscow, 2007

Climatic features in 2006 in the territory Russian Federation

INTRODUCTION

The report on climate features in the territory of the Russian Federation is an official publication of the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring.

The report provides information on the state of the climate of the Russian Federation and its regions for 2006 as a whole and by seasons, anomalies climatic characteristics, information about extreme weather and climate events.

Assessments of climate features and other information given in the Report were obtained on the basis of data from the state observation network of Roshydromet.

For comparison and ratings climate change are given in time series of spatially averaged mean annual and seasonal anomalies of air temperature and precipitation over period from 1951 to 2006 both for Russia as a whole and for its physical and geographical regions, as well as for the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

Fig.1. Physical-geographical regions used in the Report:
1 - European part Russia (including the northern islands of the European part of Russia),
2 - Western Siberia,
3 - Central Siberia,
4 - Baikal and Transbaikalia,
5 - Eastern Siberia (including Chukotka and Kamchatka),
6 - Amur region and Primorye (including Sakhalin).

Report prepared government agency Institute for Global Climate and Ecology ( Roshydromet and RAS)”, State Institution “All-Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information - World Data Center”, State Institution “Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation” with the participation and coordination of the Department of Scientific Programs, International Cooperation and Information Resources of Roshydromet.

Reports for previous years can be found on the Roshydromet website: .

Additional information on the state of the climate in the Russian Federation and climate monitoring bulletins are posted on the websites IGKE: and VNIIGMI-MTsD: .

1.AIR TEMPERATURE

The average annual air temperature averaged over the territory of Russia in 2006 was close to normal (the anomaly was 0.38°C), but against the background warm years of the last 10th anniversary, the year was relatively cold, ranking 21st over the observation period c 1951. The warmest year in this series was 1995. It is followed by 2005 and 2002.

Long-term changes in air temperature . General view on the nature of temperature changes on the territory of the Russian Federation in the second half of the 20th and early 10th XI centuries give in time series of spatially averaged mean annual and seasonal temperature anomalies in Figs. 1.1 - 1.2 (throughout the territory of the Russian Federation) and in fig. 1.3 (by physical and geographical regions of Russia). All rows are for period from 1951 to 2006

Rice. 1.1. Anomalies of the average annual (January-December) surface air temperature (o C), averaged over the territory of the Russian Federation, 1951 - 2006 The curved line corresponds to a 5-year moving average. The straight line shows the linear trend for 1976-2006. Anomalies are calculated as deviations from the average for 1961-1990.

It can be seen from the figures that after the 1970s On the whole, throughout the territory of Russia and in all regions, warming continues, although its intensity in last years slowed down (on all time series, a straight line shows a linear trend calculated by the method least squares according to station observations for 1976-2006). In the Report, the temperature trend is estimated in degrees per decade (about C/10 years).

The most detailed picture current trends in the change in surface temperature give the geographical distribution of the coefficients of the linear trend on the territory of Russia for 1976-2006, shown in fig. 1.4 in general for the year and for all seasons. It can be seen that, on average per year, warming occurred almost throughout the entire territory, and, moreover, very insignificant in intensity. Cooling was found in Eastern Siberia in winter, and in Western Siberia in autumn. The most intense warming was in the European part in winter, in Western and Central Siberia - in spring, in Eastern Siberia - in spring and autumn.

Over a 100-year period from 1901 to 2000. the total warming was 0.6 o C on average for globe and 1.0 o C for Russia. Over the past 31 years (1976-2006), this

Fig.1.2. Average seasonal anomalies of surface air temperature (о С), averaged over the territory of the Russian Federation.
Anomalies are calculated as deviations from the average for 1961-1990. The curved lines correspond to a 5-year moving average. The straight line shows the linear trend for 1976-2006.

Rice. 1.3. Average annual anomalies of surface air temperature (о С) for Russian regions for 1951-2006

the average value for Russia was about 1.3 o C. Accordingly, the rate of warming in the last 31 years is much higher than in a century as a whole; for the territory of Russia, this is 0.43 o C / 10 years versus 0.10 o C / 10 years, respectively. The most intense warming average annual temperatures in 1976-2006 was in the European part of Russia (0.48 o C / 10 years), in Central Siberia and in the Baikal region - Transbaikalia (0.46 o C / 10 years).

Rice. 1.4. Average rate of change temperature ground air ( oC /10 years) on the territory of Russia according to observations for 1976-2006.

In winter and spring, the intensity of warming in the European part of Russia reached 0.68 o C/10 years, and in autumn in Eastern Siberia it even reached 0.85 o C/10 years.

Features of the temperature regime in 2006 In 2006, the average annual air temperature in Russia as a whole was close to the norm (the average for 1961-1990) - the excess was only 0.38 o C. The warmest on average for Russia is left with 1995 and 2005.

In general, for Russia, the most noticeable feature of 2006 is the warm summer (the sixth warmest summer after 1998, 2001, 1991, 2005, 2000 for the entire observation period), when the temperature exceeded the norm by 0.94 o C.

A record warm autumn was recorded in Eastern Siberia (the second warmest after 1995, for the period 1951-2006), where an average anomaly of +3.25 o C was recorded for the region.

In more detail, the regional features of the temperature regime in 2006 on the territory of Russia are presented in Fig. 1.5.

Winter turned out to be cold in almost the entire European part, Chukotka and most of Siberia.

The main contribution belongs to January, when the vast territory of Russia, from the western borders (with the exception of the extreme northwest) to the Primorsky Territory (with the exception of the Arctic coast of Western Siberia) was covered by one cold center with a center in Western Siberia (Fig. 1.6).

Here in January, record monthly average temperatures and several record anomalies were recorded, including:

On the territory of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug and in some settlements of the Krasnoyarsk Territory the minimum air temperature dropped below -50 o C. On January 30, the most low temperature in Russia - 58.5 o C.

In the north of the Tomsk region, a record duration of frosts below -25 o C was recorded (24 days, of which 23 days were below -30 o C), and at six meteorological stations the absolute minimum temperature was blocked by 0.1-1.4 o C for the entire observation period.

In the east of the Central Chernozem Region, in mid-January, record low minimum air temperatures were recorded (down to -37.4 ° C), and by the end of January, severe frosts reached the southernmost regions, up to the Black Sea coast, where in the Anapa-Novorossiysk region the air temperature dropped to -20 …-25 o C.

Spring was generally colder than usual in most parts of Russia. In March, the cold center, with anomalies below -6 o C, covered a significant part of the European territory of Russia (with the exception of the Voronezh, Belgorod and Kursk regions), in April - the territory to the east of the Urals. In most of Siberia, a prel was included 10% of the coldest Aprils in the last 56 years.

Summer for the territory of Russia as a whole, as already noted, it was warm and ranked 6th in the series of observations for 1951-2006, after 1998, 2001, 1991, 2005, 2000. temperatures up to 35-40 degrees Celsius) was replaced by a cold July with negative temperature anomalies. In August, intense heat was noted in the southern (up to 40-42°C on some days) and central (up to 33-37°C) regions of the European part of Russia.

Rice. 1.5. Fields of surface air temperature anomalies (о С) on the territory of Russia, averaged over 2006 (January-December) and seasons: winter (December 2005-February 2006), spring, summer, autumn 2006

Rice. 1.6. Air temperature anomalies in January 2006 (relative to the base period 1961-1990). The insets show the series of monthly mean January air temperature and the course of the mean daily temperature in January 2006 at the Aleksandrovskoe and Kolpashevo meteorological stations.

Autumn in all regions of Russia, except for Central Siberia, it was warm: the corresponding average temperature for the region was above the norm. In Eastern Siberia, autumn 2006 was the second (after 1995) warmest autumn in the last 56 years. Temperature anomalies were noted at many stations and were among the 10% highest. This regime was formed mainly due to November (Fig. 1.7).

For the most part September and October were warm in the European territory of Russia, while in the Asian territory warm september was replaced by a cold October (frosts down to -18 o, ..., -23 o in the north of the Irkutsk region and a sharp drop in temperature by 12-17 o C in Transbaikalia).

Fig 1.7. Air temperature anomalies in November 2006 Insets show the series of mean monthly November air temperature and mean daily air temperature in November 2006 at Susuman meteorological stations and series of mean monthly air temperature averaged over the territory of quasi-homogeneous regions.

In November, three large heat pockets formed over the territory of Russia , separated by a fairly intense zone of cold. The most powerful of them was located over the continental regions of the Magadan region and the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug. Anomalies in the average monthly air temperature reached 13-15 o C in the center. As a result, November was very warm on the Arctic coast and islands, as well as in the east of Russia. The second, less powerful heat center was formed over the Republics of Altai and Tyva (with anomalies of average monthly temperature in the center of the center up to 5-6 o C), and the third - in the western regions of the European part of Russia (monthly average anomaly up to +2 o C). At the same time, the cold area covered a vast territory from the eastern regions of the European part of Russia in the west to the northern regions of Transbaikalia - in the east. In the central regions of the autonomous regions of Western Siberia average monthly temperature air in November is 5-6 o C below the norm, in the north of the Irkutsk region - 3-4 o C.

December 2006 (Fig. 1.8) in most of the territory of Russia turned out to be abnormally warm. IN centers of positive anomalies at a number of stations (see insets in Figs.. 1.8)climatic records of average monthly and average daily air temperatures were set. In particular, V Moscow the December average monthly temperature of +1.2 0 С was recorded as a record high. The average daily air temperature in Moscow was above the norm throughout the month, with the exception of December 26, and the maximum temperature was eleven times higher than its absolute maximum and on December 15 reached +9 ° C.

Rice. 1.8. Air temperature anomalies in December 2006
Insets: a) series of monthly mean December air temperature and mean daily temperatureair in December 2006 at the weather stations Kostroma and Kolpashevo; b) average monthly air temperature averaged over the territory of quasi-homogeneous regions.

(continuation of the report in the following articles)

And now let's look into all this ... namely, air temperature

!!! ATTENTION!!!

An article on the analysis of the first part of the report "Now let's look into all this ..." is under development. Approximate release date August 2007