Birth rate in China. Demographics of China's provinces. The problem of food supply

China's National Bureau of Statistics announced on Jan. 19 that the total number of people born in China in 2015 was 16.55 million, down 320,000 from 2014. 2015 was the second year after the introduction by the Chinese authorities of the policy "parents who were the only child in the family can have two children", but the birth rate did not increase this year, but, on the contrary, decreased contrary to demographers' forecasts. /website/

Unexpected numbers of China's demographic statistics

According to Chinese media, the National Bureau of Statistics on January 19 released data on the state of China's national economy and the demographic situation in the country. In 2015, the total population of China amounted to 1 billion 374 million 620 thousand people and increased by 6.8 million compared to last year. At the same time, the birth rate was 16.55 million people, which is 320 thousand less than in 2014.

Since January 2014, a new population policy has been introduced in each province of the PRC: "parents who were the only child in the family have the right to have two children." Previously, forecasts have already been made that in 2015 the birth rate will continue to grow - up to 17 or even 18 million people. However, last year the birth rate in China did not increase, but, on the contrary, fell, and this caused great bewilderment among many.

Demographers Huang Wenzheng and Liang Jianzhang made a joint analysis, which is published in the Caixin online publication. They argue that the decline in fertility is due to two factors. First, the number of women of childbearing age is declining. Secondly, among women of childbearing age, the number of those wishing to give birth is decreasing. The growth in the birth rate, which this demographic policy should contribute to, is much smaller than the reduction caused by the two above factors.

According to demographers, the total fertility rate in the PRC is approximately 1.4, which is significantly less than the generational change rate of 2.1, and this is classified as an ultra-low birth rate.

Since January 2016, a new policy has been fully implemented in China, stating that spouses have the right to have two children without any restrictions.

The policy of two children was coolly received

Demographer Yao Meixiong believes that the decline in the birth rate in 2015 indicates that, in general, among the Chinese, the desire to have children has weakened. If the two-child policy does not implement a set of measures to stimulate the birth rate, then there is a possibility that the Chinese will greet her coldly, too, says Yao.

Demographer Li Jianxin of Peking University also believes that the lack of interest in an unrestricted two-child policy is inevitable, since the current Chinese who marry and have children were born in the 80s and 90s. This generation has ideas about the birth of children, and the cost of their birth and upbringing, is not at all the same as that of the generation of their parents.

Gu Baochang of the Renmin University of China, in his recent Phoenix Weekly article, wrote that when research was done in various places in China to find out what the effect of implementing the restrictive two-child policy was, they were amazed to find that, regardless of whether the eastern whether it is China or the West, city or countryside, the reaction to this policy everywhere was unexpectedly indifferent. There were very few spouses who applied for the birth of a second child. In the course of the study, Gu Baochang found that couples who have a second child have one extremely important trait - the parents of these spouses are able to help them take care of the children.

According to the demographer, in a situation where the population policy of "bearing less but better" has become a major trend in Chinese society and a strategy has been adopted to fully implement the two-child policy, the National Committee for Health and Planned Childbirth of the CCP still emphasizes that the birth of a third child is strictly prohibited and continue to be fined. This does not meet the requirements of the time at all, Gu Baochan believes.

Huang Wenzheng and Liang Jianzhang also believe that in the face of a dangerously low birth rate in the PRC, it is necessary to immediately lift the birth control and start stimulating it as soon as possible. Even if an unrestricted two-child policy is now introduced everywhere, China will still be the only place on the globe with the most severe birth control.

The dire consequences of the one-child policy

Data released on January 19 by the National Bureau of Statistics also shows that at the end of 2015, there were 704.14 million males and 670.48 million females in China. There were 33.66 million more men than women.

The Communist Party's 35 years of one-child policy has continuously caused social problems and brought much suffering to ordinary people. A strong violation of the proportion between the male and female population is one of its consequences. This has led to an increase in the number of bachelors.

In addition, the increasing aging of the population, the "acute labor shortage" and other problems are becoming more and more threatening in China every year. In April last year, Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei noted that the number of people over 65 had increased from 8.1% in 2011 to the current 10.1%. The working-age population began to decline sharply. At the beginning of 2012, it decreased by 3 million people (people aged 16-59) and has continued to fall since then.

Fudan University professor Wang Feng told CNN that when people look back in the future, they will see that the one-child policy is the CCP's biggest mistake in modern history. He considers it ineffective and unnecessary, since in the 80s. The birth rate in China has already slowed down.

And China is growing rapidly every year. At the moment, the number of people inhabiting the Earth is about 7.2 billion. But, as UN experts predict, by 2050 this figure could reach 9.6 billion.

Countries of the world with the largest population according to 2016 estimates

Consider the 10 countries with the highest population in the world, as of 2016:

1. China - about 1.374 billion
2. India - approximately 1.283 billion
3. United States - 322.694 million
4. Indonesia - 252.164 million
5. Brazil - 205.521 million
6. Pakistan - 192 million
7. Nigeria - 173.615 million
8. Bangladesh - 159.753 million
9. Russia - 146.544 million
10. Japan - 127.130 million

As can be seen from the list, the population of India and China is the largest and accounts for more than 36% of the entire world community. But, according to UN experts, the demographic picture will change significantly by 2028. If now the leading position is occupied by China, then in 11-12 years there will be more than in China.

Within a year, each of these countries is projected to have a population of 1.45 billion. But China's demographic growth will begin to decline, while India's population growth will continue until the 1950s.

What is the population density in China?

The population of China in 2016 is 1,374,440,000 people. Despite the country's large territory, China is not densely populated. Settlement is uneven due to a number of geographical features. The average population density per square kilometer is 138 people. Approximately the same figures for the developed countries of Europe, such as Poland, Portugal, France and Switzerland.

The population of India in 2016 is less than in China, by about 90 million, but its density is 2.5 times higher and is equal to about 363 people per 1 square kilometer.

If the territory of the PRC is not fully populated, why is there talk of overpopulation? Indeed, the average data cannot reflect the whole essence of the problem. In China, there are regions where the population density per square kilometer is in the thousands, for example: in Hong Kong this figure is 6,500 people, and in Macau - 21,000. What is the reason for this phenomenon? Actually there are several:

• climatic conditions;
• the geographical location of a particular territory;
• economic component of individual regions.

If we compare India and China, then the territory of the second state is much larger. But the western and northern parts of the country are actually not populated. These provinces, which occupy about 50% of the entire territory of the republic, are home to only 6% of the population. The mountains of Tibet and the deserts of Takla-Makan and Gobi are considered practically deserted.

The population of China in 2016 is concentrated in large numbers in the fertile regions of the country, which are located in the North China Plain and near large waterways - Zhujiang and Yangtze.

The largest metropolitan areas in China

Huge cities with a population of many millions are commonplace in China. The largest metropolitan areas are:

• Shanghai. This city has 24 million inhabitants. It is here that the world's largest port is located.
• Beijing is the capital of China. Here is the government of the state and other organizations of administrative management. About 21 million people live in the metropolis.

The million-plus cities include Harbin, Tianjin and Guangzhou.

Peoples of China

The main part of the inhabitants of the Celestial Empire is the Han people (91.5% of the total population). There are also 55 national minorities in China. The most numerous of them are:

• Zhuang - 16 million
• Manchus - 10 million.
• Tibetans - 5 million

The small Loba people number no more than 3,000 people.

The problem of food supply

The population of India and China is the largest on the planet, because of which there is an acute problem of food supply for these regions.

In China, the amount of arable land is approximately 8% of the total territory. At the same time, some are polluted with waste and unsuitable for cultivation. Within the country itself, the food problem cannot be solved because of the colossal shortage of food. Therefore, Chinese investors are massively buying up agricultural and food production, as well as renting fertile land in other countries (Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan).

The leadership of the republic is directly involved in solving the problem. In 2013 alone, about $12 billion was invested in the acquisition of food industry enterprises around the world.

The population of India in 2016 exceeded 1.2 billion, and the average density increased to 363 people per 1 square kilometer. Such indicators significantly increase the load on cultivated land. It is extremely difficult to provide food for such a mass of people, and every year the problem is getting worse. A large number of the population of India lives below the poverty line, the state has to pursue a demographic policy in order to somehow influence the current situation. Attempts to stop the rapid growth of the population have been introduced since the middle of the last century.

And India is aimed at regulating the growth in the population of these countries.

Peculiarities of demographic policy in China

The overpopulation of China and the constant threat of a food and economic crisis are forcing the country's government to take decisive measures to prevent such situations. For this, a plan was developed to limit the birth rate. An incentive system was introduced if only 1 child grew up in the family, and those who wanted to afford 2-3 children had to pay impressive fines. Not all residents of the country could afford such a luxury. Although the innovation did not apply. They were allowed to have two, and sometimes three children.

The number of men in China prevails over the female population, so the birth of girls is welcome.

Despite all the measures taken by the state, the problem of overpopulation remains unresolved.

The introduction of a demographic policy under the slogan "One family - one child" led to negative consequences. To date, the aging of the nation is observed in China, that is, there are about 8% of people over 65 years old, while the norm is 7%. Since there is no pension system in the state, the care of the elderly falls on the shoulders of their children. It is especially difficult for older people who live with children with disabilities or do not have them at all.

Another major problem in China is gender imbalance. For many years, the number of boys has outnumbered the number of girls. There are about 120 men for every 100 females. The reasons for this problem are caused by the ability to determine the sex of the fetus in the first trimester of pregnancy and numerous abortions. According to statistics, it is assumed that in 3-4 years the number of bachelors in the country will reach 25 million.

Population policy in India

Over the past century, the population of China and India has grown significantly, which is why the problem of family planning in these countries has been taken up at the state level. Initially, the demographic policy program included birth control to improve the well-being of families. Among the many developing one of the first took up this issue. The program has been operating since 1951. To control the birth rate, methods of contraception and sterilization were used, which was carried out voluntarily. Men who agreed to such an operation were encouraged by the state, receiving a monetary reward.

The male population predominates over the female population. Since the program was ineffective, in 1976 it was tightened. Men who had two or more children were subjected to forced sterilization.

In the 50s of the last century in India, women were allowed to marry from the age of 15, and men from the age of 22. In 1978, this rate was increased to 18 and 23 years respectively.

In 1986, drawing on the experience of China, India established the norm of no more than 2 children per family.

In 2000 significant changes were made in the demographic policy. The main focus is on promoting the improvement of family living conditions by reducing the number of children.

India. Major cities and nationalities

Almost a third of the total population of India lives in large cities of the country. The largest metropolitan areas are:

• Bombay (15 million).
• Calcutta (13 million).
• Delhi (11 million).
• Madras (6 million).

India is a multinational country, more than 2000 different peoples and ethnic groups live here. The most numerous are:

• Hindustanis;
• Bengalis;
• Marathi;
• Tamils ​​and many others.

Small nations include:

• naga;
• manipuri;
• garo;
• miso;
• typer.

About 7% of the country's inhabitants belong to backward tribes, leading an almost primitive way of life.

Why is India's population policy less successful than China's?

The socio-economic features of India and China differ significantly from each other. This is the reason for the failed demographic policy of the Hindus. Consider the main factors due to which it is not possible to significantly affect population growth:

1. One third of Indians are considered poor.
2. The level of education in the country is very low.
3. Compliance with various religious dogmas.
4. Early marriages according to thousands of years of tradition.

The most interesting thing is that in the state of Kerala, the population growth rate is the lowest in the country. The same region is considered the most educated. The literacy of people is 91%. For every woman in the country, there are 5 children, while for the inhabitants of Kerala - less than two.

According to experts, within 2 years the population of India and China will be approximately the same.

The fact that in 2016 in China were born 18.46 million people, said the day before during a press conference in Beijing, the representative of the National Committee for Health and Planned Parenthood (NHPC) Yang Wenzhuang, reports The Global Times. “While the total number of women of childbearing age has fallen by 5 million, the birth rate has increased significantly, showing that the adjustment of family planning policy has been extremely timely and very effective,” the agency official explained.

Thus, compared with 2015, the birth rate in China increased by 11.5%, said Wenzhuang. The number of not the first children in the family is more than 45% of the total number of newborns.

The number of women of childbearing age is expected to decline by about 5 million a year between 2016 and 2020, a spokesman said. At the same time, China expects to keep the birth rate at the level of 17-20 million people a year.

At the same time, on Friday, January 20, the State Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) reported that 17.86 million children were born in the country last year, Interfax reports. 9.77 million people died during the same period. The population of the People's Republic of China reached 1 billion 382 million people in 2016, an increase of 8.09 million over the year.

The number of people of working age (from 16 to 59 years old) is 907.47 million, and the number of citizens of retirement age (60 years and above) is 230.96 million, i.e. 16.7% of the total population.

In addition, the male population of the country is 708.15 million, the female population is 674.56 million. Thus, there are 100 women for every 104.98 men. Chinese experts are concerned that more than 4 million Chinese men will not be able to marry by 2020.

The discrepancy in numbers is due to the use of different statistical methods, notes the BBC. The results of the State Committee for Health and Planned Parenthood are based on data from hospital birth certificates, while the estimates of the State Statistical Office were made during the survey on a sample basis.

At the same time, experts have previously warned that China's overpopulation could affect Russia. This applies to Eastern Siberia, where residents of the Celestial Empire have been actively moving in recent years. As Professor of the University of Latvia, orientalist Leon Taiwans said in May 2014, due to the annexation of Crimea to Russia, the “Crimean scenario” could be repeated in the Russian Federation itself in a few decades. Only the Chinese in Eastern Siberia will act as "oppressed": "They will also talk about the majority of the population."

The one-child policy was introduced in China in 1979 and has been in place for many years. China was forced to legislate family size limits in the 1970s when it became apparent that the country's vast population lacked resources. With some exceptions, families were allowed to have only one child. Parents who violated this rule were subject to heavy fines and other severe penalties, including dismissal from civil service and expulsion from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

The abbreviation "AR" on all maps stands for "Autonomous Region".

Pictures are clickable.

Dynamics of the population of the provinces of China in 2000-2015:

1 - Demographics of China's regions in 2000-2015.

Table 1 - Change in the population of China in 2000-2015, million people

The population growth rate in China is slowly declining, but it can hardly be assumed that China will face the problem of a declining population in the near future. Growth rates in 2005-2010 and 2010-2015 about the same - about 2.5% for each period.

Figure 1 - Change in the population of China in 2000-2005, %.

Figure 2 - Change in the population of China in 2005-2010, %.

Figure 3 - Change in the population of China in 2010-2015, %.

It can be noted that, despite the overall slight decrease in the population growth rate in the country, the number of regions with negative growth is decreasing from six in the period 2000-2005. to just one province (Heilongjiang) in 2010-2015. This may indicate a weakening of migration processes between the provinces.

The highest population growth is observed in the cities of central subordination - Beijing and Tianjin. And also in the Tibet and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Regions.

2 - Population density of regions in China in 2015

Table 2 - Population density in China in 2015, pers. per 1 sq. km of territory.

Figure 4 - Population density in China in 2000-2015, pers. per 1 sq. km of territory.

Despite the fact that China is the most populous country in the world, in terms of population density it is significantly inferior to many countries (56th place in 2015). The least populated are the regions bordering Russia and the Tibetan provinces (Tibet and Qinghai).

3 - Urbanization in the provinces of China

Table 3 - The share of urban population in the provinces of China in 2015, %.

Figure 5 - The share of urban population in the provinces of China in 2000-2015, %.

The proportion of the urban population in China is slightly over 50%. It is logical that the largest share of the urban population is in the cities of central subordination (excluding, oddly enough, the city of central subordination Chongqing). The smallest is in Tibet.

4 - Birth, death and natural increase in the provinces of China

Table 4 - Birth rate, death rate and population growth in Chinese provinces in 2015, pers. per 1000 population.

Figure 6 - Natural population growth in Chinese provinces in 2015, people per 1000 population.

With natural growth in the provinces of China, everything is in order. Only in the northeastern provinces - Heilongjiang and Liaoning - a negative increase. In contrast, Xinjiang and Tibet show the largest growth rates.

In general, all provinces of China are characterized by a very low mortality rate by Russian standards. Although the birth rate in China is on average less than in Russia. But in 2016, its significant growth is noted.

5 - The proportion of different ages in the population of the provinces of China.

Table 5 - The share of different ages in the population of Chinese provinces in 2015, %.

Figure 7 - Share of children aged 0-14 in the population of Chinese provinces in 2015, %.

Figure 8 - The proportion of older people aged 65 and over in the population of Chinese provinces in 2015, %.

The smallest proportion of children in Shanghai. Most of the old people are in Chongqing. More than in other provinces, the proportion of children and the smallest proportion of the elderly - in Tibet.

6 - Literacy of the population of the provinces of China

Table 6 - The proportion of illiterates in the population of Chinese provinces aged 15 years and older in 2015,%.

Figure 9 - The proportion of illiterates in the population of Chinese provinces aged 15 years and older in 2015,%.